Clinch Scenarios

[NDilbeckWx]

We still got several weeks before the season finale, but I've always wondered, how do they figure out the clinch scenarios for the championship contenders, as in "so and so has to finish just 30th or better to win" and what not. Any ideas on how they figure that stuff out?

Thanks for anyone who can help!

 

[Markfan]

It's pretty straight forward. If the maximum amount of points that one can gain on the leader is "X". The difference between 1st and 2nd has to be "X+1".

For example, someone can clinch with one race to go with 49 points entering the finale, while they'd need to have 97 points in order to clinch two races in advance (that includes skipping the final races).

If someone needs to finish 30th in the final race order to clinch the title, that means that the points difference between them and 2nd-place is large enough that if 2nd-place won and led the most laps, the amount of points gained on 1st would not exceed the difference in points between them entering the race.

 

[MattSRD28]

Yeah it basically works like this:

1) Assume 2nd place get maximum points every race for the rest of the season, calculate how many points the current leader needs to beat what 2nd place would have from getting max points by 1

2) Average out the amount of points the leader would need based on how many races are left to determine how many points per race the leader must score.

3) Determine what finishing position corresponds to that amount of points per race.

The result is the leader needs to finish Xth or better in remaining races, regardless of what anyone else does.

 

[NDilbeckWx]

Okay. I would assume that this would also apply when it comes to making the chase?

Reason I ask is because I'm down to just one race before the chase in my league. Only one driver is actually locked in and 2nd through roughly 25th still have some chance via a wild card or reaching the top 10. I was going to try and make a list of what each driver would have to do to make the chase...