Top 35 Watch

[Mike24]

it's a really tough situation. I would hate to make the rules. What NASCAR doesn't want is to send guys like Kasey Kahne or Dale Jr home. Remember at the beginning of the season where they were like 36th or 40th in the standings? Hell I believe Martin Truex was farther back (and he made the Chase!). NASCAR wants their superstars in the show so they can put some butts in the seats at every track. It's a very tough situation. Fastest 43 wouldn't work because guys like Matt Kenseth and Jeff Burton have never been good qualifiers. And you want those guys in the field. This is my final idea and it was what I said before let all the go-or-go-homers qualify together so they equal track conditions.

Yes. That is why you only lock in the elite, say the top 10, 15, or even 20. If you can't get your car in the top 20 in points after 5 races, regardless of how the rest of your season goes, and you need to rely on a provisional, you weren't good enough to make the field. I don't care if you are Dale Jr, Jeff Gordon, Sam Hornish Jr., or Michael Waltrip. If you aren't good enough in a particular week, and aren't in an elite class in points, you should not make the race.

 

[Batman1138]

yeah that works I guess. This topic is really starting to depress me.

 

[Mike24]

Same here. It's like beating a dead horse. There's nothing we can do about it, other than argue back and forth on what we believe should be done.

 

[scottw73]

I agree. We all have some very valid points, but like mike said there is nothing else we could do. I think we should officially declare this subject "Dead" and move on.

 

[MattSRD28]

That's fine scott but I started this thread because I'm going to watch this over the rest of the season.

I think we can have an attention span that long at least, AND THEN we can talk about this more once we have some real observations.

You're free to contribute to the discussion or ignore it completely, of course.

-- DF28

 

[MattSRD28]

Let's Try This Again, Shall We?

Alright, after our first go at this, the discussion I had in mind here went really off on a tangent that I really didn't want it to go. People started talking about all sorts of top-35 theories and basically ignored the results that I had put up. That's not why I started this thread. I started this thread to discuss the reality of who made the race & who didn't as pertains to the top 35 rule. Do the best 43 really start each race with this rule? A yes answer endorses the current top 35 rule, while a no answer denounces it.

In this case, vague theory discussion about a top 35 rule replacement is probably best for another thread. Hope everyone understands, because it does take a certain amount of time to present the qualifying results in a presentable manner here. I'd rather not spend the time only to have it end up completely lost in a discussion over vague theory.

Now, I did get a week behind (started a new job, YAY!), so I'm going to post results for both Martinsville AND Atlanta, and hopefully put these up after each qualifying session for the remaining 3 races of the season. So without further adieu, here's Martinsville...

Subway 500 Lineup with top 35 rule
1) 24 Jeff Gordon 19.938
2) 1 Martin Truex Jr. 19.988
3) 29 Kevin Harvick 19.999
4) 48 Jimmie Johnson 20.013
5) 9 Kasey Kahne 20.020
6) 5 Kyle Busch 20.025
7) 8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20.026
8) 18 J.J. Yeley 20.039
9) 26 Jamie McMurray 20.050
10) 96 Tony Raines 20.066
11) 2 Kurt Busch 20.068
12) 12 Ryan Newman 20.072
13) 70 Johnny Sauter 20.084
14) 19 Elliott Sadler 20.097
15) 49 John Andretti 20.101
16) 43 Bobby Labonte 20.113
17) 22 Dave Blaney 20.120
18) 31 Jeff Burton 20.126
19) 00 David Reutimann 20.127
20) 99 Carl Edwards 20.13
21) 07 Clint Bowyer 20.138
22) 25 Casey Mears 20.150
23) 88 Ricky Rudd 20.150
24) 17 Matt Kenseth 20.170
25) 84 AJ Allmendinger 20.175
26) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 20.182
27) 1 Aric Almirola 20.184
28) 41 Reed Sorenson 20.184
29) 55 Michael Waltrip 20.184
30) 11 Denny Hamlin 20.185
31) 66 Jeff Green 20.205
32) 10 Scott Riggs 20.206
33) 44 Dale Jarrett 20.225
34) 20 Tony Stewart 20.241
35) 15 Paul Menard 20.263
36) 4 Ward Burton 20.271
37) 16 Greg Biffle 20.284
38) 40 David Stremme 20.364
39) 7 Robby Gordon 20.390
40) 38 David Gilliland 20.405
41) 6 David Ragan 20.446
42) 45 Kyle Petty 20.487
43) 21 Bill Elliott 20.462
DNQ) 06 Sam Hornish 20.347
DNQ) 78 Joe Nemechek 20.376
DNQ) 83 Brian Vickers 20.449
DNQ) 36 Jeremy Mayfield 20.640
DNQ) 37 Kevin Lepage 20.774

Lime - indicates team out of top 35 in points that made the race as one of 43 fastest
Red - indicates team in top 35, or a past Champion that made the race NOT as one of the 43 fastest (would have DNQ'd w/o Top-35/ChampProv rule)

Lineup according to 43 fastest
1) 24 Jeff Gordon 19.938
2) 1 Martin Truex Jr. 19.988
3) 29 Kevin Harvick 19.999
4) 48 Jimmie Johnson 20.013
5) 9 Kasey Kahne 20.020
6) 5 Kyle Busch 20.025
7) 8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20.026
8) 18 J.J. Yeley 20.039
9) 26 Jamie McMurray 20.050
10) 96 Tony Raines 20.066
11) 2 Kurt Busch 20.068
12) 12 Ryan Newman 20.072
13) 70 Johnny Sauter 20.084
14) 19 Elliott Sadler 20.097
15) 49 John Andretti 20.101
16) 43 Bobby Labonte 20.113
17) 22 Dave Blaney 20.120
18) 31 Jeff Burton 20.126
19) 00 David Reutimann 20.127
20) 99 Carl Edwards 20.13
21) 07 Clint Bowyer 20.138
22) 25 Casey Mears 20.150
23) 88 Ricky Rudd 20.150
24) 17 Matt Kenseth 20.170
25) 84 AJ Allmendinger 20.175
26) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 20.182
27) 01 Aric Almirola 20.184
28) 41 Reed Sorenson 20.184
29) 55 Michael Waltrip 20.184
30) 11 Denny Hamlin 20.185
31) 66 Jeff Green 20.205
32) 10 Scott Riggs 20.206
33) 44 Dale Jarrett 20.225
34) 20 Tony Stewart 20.241
35) 15 Paul Menard 20.263
36) 4 Ward Burton 20.271
37) 16 Greg Biffle 20.284
38) 06 Sam Hornish 20.347
39) 40 David Stremme 20.364
40) 78 Joe Nemechek 20.376
41) 7 Robby Gordon 20.390
42) 38 David Gilliland 20.405
43) 6 David Ragan 20.446
DNQ) 83 Brian Vickers 20.449
DNQ) 21 Bill Elliott 20.462
DNQ) 45 Kyle Petty 20.487
DNQ) 36 Jeremy Mayfield 20.640
DNQ) 37 Kevin Lepage 20.774

Lime-indicates team not in top 35, but in fastest 43
Red-indicates team in top 35 or past Champion, but not in fastest 43

Oh-kay, so once again it's a 2-team difference. Kyle Petty & Bill Elliott made it thanks to the Top 35/Champ Prov rule, and Sam Hornish & Joe Nemechek had to go home, despite BOTH qualifying over a tenth faster than Kyle Petty. That's rather damning for the top-35 rule. A tenth at Martinsville is huge. My sympathies go to Sam Hornish and Joe Nemechek for giving a gallant effort at making the race.

However, Sam Hornish and Joe Nemechek are not Bill Elliott and Kyle Petty. A lot of what NASCAR is today is built upon the contributions over decades of racing by Elliott and Petty. Kyle has also maintained himself all season in the top-35 in points, attempting and finishing each race well enough to earn that distinction. Bill Elliott's resume, and that of the Wood Bros. speak for themselves.

Sam Hornish is running a limited schedule in hopes of getting a leg up for a 2008 run at ROTY. Should Hornish's leg up be at the expense of Kyle Petty or Bill Elliott? NASCAR's Top-35 & Champion's Provisional say no.

Now onto Atlanta...

Pep Boys 500 Lineup w/ Top-35/ChampProv Rule
1) 16 Greg Biffle 28.807
2) 2 Kurt Busch 28.811
3) 44 Dale Jarrett 28.927
4) 9 Kasey Kahne 28.936
5) 8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 28.952
6) 48 Jimmie Johnson 28.996
7) 40 David Stremme 29.030
8) 24 Jeff Gordon 29.069
9) 12 Ryan Newman 29.069
10) 19 Elliott Sadler 29.071
11) 43 Bobby Labonte 29.095
12) 01 Mark Martin 29.101
13) 38 David Gilliland 29.123
14) 83 Brian Vickers 29.141
15) 25 Casey Mears 29.170
16) 99 Carl Edwards 29.207
17) 17 Matt Kenseth 29.207
18) 11 Denny Hamlin 29.213
19) 5 Kyle Busch 29.216
20) 1 Martin Truex Jr. 29.219
21) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 29.226
22) 18 J.J. Yeley 29.228
23) 78 Joe Nemechek 29.234
24) 55 Michael Waltrip 29.239
25) 26 Jamie McMurray 29.251
26) 07 Clint Bowyer 29.267
27) 10 Scott Riggs 29.270
28) 31 Jeff Burton 29.276
29) 49 John Andretti 29.291
30) 20 Tony Stewart 29.301
31) 84 AJ Allmendinger # 29.319
32) 41 Reed Sorenson 29.365
33) 7 Robby Gordon 29.414
34) 29 Kevin Harvick 29.477
35) 70 Johnny Sauter 29.484
36) 15 Paul Menard # 29.523
37) 6 David Ragan # 29.591
38) 88 Ricky Rudd 29.635
39) 45 Kyle Petty 29.698
40) 96 Tony Raines 29.73
41) 66 Jeremy Mayfield 29.817
42) 22 Dave Blaney accident
43) 21 Bill Elliott 29.480
DNQ) 00 David Reutimann 29.371
DNQ) 08 Burney Lamar 29.374
DNQ) 06 Sam Hornish 29.387
DNQ) 4 Ward Buton 29.537
DNQ) 36 Mike Skinner 29.542

Lime - indicates team out of top 35 in points that made the race as one of 43 fastest
Red - indicates team in top 35 that made the race NOT as one of the 43 fastest (would have missed w/o Top-35/ChampProv rule)

Lineup according to the 43 fastest
1) 16 Greg Biffle 28.807
2) 2 Kurt Busch 28.811
3) 44 Dale Jarrett 28.927
4) 9 Kasey Kahne 28.936
5) 8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 28.952
6) 48 Jimmie Johnson 28.996
7) 40 David Stremme 29.030
8) 24 Jeff Gordon 29.069
9) 12 Ryan Newman 29.069
10) 19 Elliott Sadler 29.071
11) 43 Bobby Labonte 29.095
12) 01 Mark Martin 29.101
13) 38 David Gilliland 29.123
14) 83 Brian Vickers 29.141
15) 25 Casey Mears 29.170
16) 99 Carl Edwards 29.207
17) 17 Matt Kenseth 29.207
18) 11 Denny Hamlin 29.213
19) 5 Kyle Busch 29.216
20) 1 Martin Truex Jr. 29.219
21) 42 Juan Pablo Montoya 29.226
22) 18 J.J. Yeley 29.228
23) 78 Joe Nemechek 29.234
24) 55 Michael Waltrip 29.239
25) 26 Jamie McMurray 29.251
26) 07 Clint Bowyer 29.267
27) 10 Scott Riggs 29.270
28) 31 Jeff Burton 29.276
29) 49 John Andretti 29.291
30) 20 Tony Stewart 29.301
31) 84 AJ Allmendinger 29.319
32) 41 Reed Sorenson 29.365
33) 00 David Reutimann 29.371
34) 08 Burney Lamar 29.374
35) 06 Sam Hornish 29.387
36) 7 Robby Gordon 29.414
37) 29 Kevin Harvick 29.477
38) 70 Johnny Sauter 29.484
39) 15 Paul Menard 29.523
40) 4 Ward Buton 29.537
41) 36 Mike Skinner 29.542
42) 6 David Ragan 29.591
43) 88 Ricky Rudd 29.635
DNQ) 45 Kyle Petty 29.698
DNQ) 96 Tony Raines 29.730
DNQ) 66 Jeremy Mayfield 29.817
DNQ) 21 Bill Elliott 29.480
DNQ) 22 Dave Blaney accident

Lime-indicates team not in top 35, but in fastest 43
Red-indicates team in top 35 or past Champion, but not in fastest 43

So, this time, 5 teams went home that otherwise wouldn't have if the lineup was the 43 fastest. Likewise, 5 teams made the race that otherwise wouldn't have if the lineup was the 43 fastest. Looks rather bleak for the top-35 rule doesn't it?

Well there are 2 main sticking points here:

1) Atlanta Motor Speedway
2) Non-COT race

The track is a factor because it's one of the fastest racetracks on the circuit. So, like at Daytona & Tally, the top-35 teams don't worry about qualifying very much, while the 36th on back crowd acts like their life depends on it. At a track like Atlanta, combined with the fact it's a non-COT race (which means more even playing field at this point in the COT's life), these results are rather predictable given the conditions.

But, all that really means, is that the results come from the conditions, and the conditions come from the top-35 rule. Without that rule, you wouldn't see this gaping discrepancy of 5 top-35 teams missing the race w/o the rule.

To break it down, w/o the rule Reutimann, Lamar, Hornish, Burton & Skinner would have made it instead of Petty, Raines, Mayfield, Elliott, and Blaney.

The question always boils down to did the best 43 car field start this race? Should Reuit, Lamar, Hornish, Ward Burton & Skinner have all started instead of Petty, Raines, Mayfield, Elliott & Blaney? Remember, take away the top-35 rule, and those teams in the top-35 start caring A LOT MORE about qualifying. There wouldn't be the exact results of this qualifying session here. The 45,96,66,21 and 22 teams would have all put more effort into their runs than they did.

So, there are the results of life with the top-35 rule.

Am I wrong with anything I've said here?

Feel free to post your comments and thoughts, but like I said, vague theoretical discussion regarding 'the solution' is probably best suited for a seperate thread. This thread is about the Top 35 rule itself, whether it's working or not, and for discussion regarding the race-to-race results. Please stay on-topic, thanks.

-- DF28

 

[Mike24]

Now this is some VERY concrete data. Especially the Atlanta race. Every driver that DNQ'd would have made it via fastest 43...